What Event Takes Starts The SHTF Ball Rolling?

Jan 20, 2012 by

While things are deteriorating quickly in the world, I’m a believer that one event will start escalating the civil unrest and force us to implement our SHTF plans.

Will it be a stock market crash? war in the Middle East? currency failure in Europe?

Actually, I think it will be $8-10 / gallon gasoline prices.

Imagine, spending $150-$175 for a tank of gas each week?  How do you think the average family would handle that kind of increase?  For many families and commuters this would be an unsustainable increase.  The issue with gas is that it doesn’t impact only one wealth class, it impacts everyone.  The guy making $30,000 a year with an hour commute pays $150 to fill his tank just like someone making $100,000.  Obviously, the impact to the guy making $30,000 is huge.

In my mind, civil unrest occurs when the masses feel significant pain.  Right now, while everyone is hurting a bit, the unemployed are bearing the brunt.  When it starts to impact the vast majority, you will see larger protests, etc.

What do you think will be the event that triggers your SHTF plan?  And, do you think that is truly TEOTWAWKI?



  1. gat31

    Wow great topic! 8-10 dollars a gallon is definitely a game changer for many. If they cut off assistance programs and or raise electricity costs could do it too. I was listening to a radio show where they were talking about a 40 percent increase in electric.My electric now is between 3 and 4 hundred a month. That kind of increase would almost make it the same as a rent or house payment. I can tell you many people will not be able to afford it and will put even more people on assistance programs or hitting up churches and charity organizations to help with the difference. Problem with that is, the churches are drying up money wise because less people are attending them and with so many unemployed now the tithing isn’t what it used to be. Any of these things will make people angry, but l think it will take 2 or more to happen before the people truly get angry and wake up to what’s going on around them and do something about it.

    • Yes, the more I think about it you are probably right that it will take a few things to push people over the edge. Electric costs certainly being one of them. Ours have gone up quite a bit in the last 6 months.

  2. farmermike

    I think it has to be something we need. Food and shelter type things. It has to be something that makes people not care if the police arrest or shoot at them, they need it to keep themselves and their family alive.
    If fuel increases, everything increases except wages. $7 fuel would cause a massive recession/depression globally.
    I personally think we will only know what the event that started it all was in hindsight. I think that something will cause a small uprising, the gov’t will over reach with some martial law plan and then quickly spiral out of control into a revolution. A quick scenario would be something like a food price protest that gets violent, the gov call in the military for crowd control then over reaches by trying to dissarm everyone in that city like they did in katrina. Word spreads on alt. media and people prepare to defend themselves against criminals and the gov’t (may have repeated myself there).

    • Mike,

      I agree with your point about being shot at or arrested. Also a good point about us knowing in hindsight. I don’t really see a scenario where an event and subsequent over-reaction happens (though our gov’t is unpredictable).

      Great comment.

  3. SHT Fan Stan

    Here’s what my crystal ball says. An event in the Middle East causes gasoline prices to spike, causing some farmers or truckers to have disprupted service, which causes minor delays in food shipment to grocery stores. People seeing a few empty shelves start to wonder if TSHTF, and they buy extra stuff just in case. Other people see this and it causes a massive panic that snowballs out of control and soon spreads like wildfire. The President goes on the air and announces there is no problem, there is nothing to worry about, and that makes the problem a million times bigger. That’s when they announce a curfew, looters being shot on sight, military presence everywhere, and FEMA camps starting to fill up with hungry, desperate people. It’s called a positive feedback system where a tiny blip feeds upon itself and explodes into a major crisis.

  4. Vk

    The price of gas up to 10 USD/g will not triger riots. Now the price of gas in EU is nearly the same and the salaries of the same level as in US. The price of gasoline in Germany for example is 1.63 Euro/liter ( it means 7.7USD/g at 1Euro=1.25USD and 1gallon=3.785Liter). I want to say that normal people with preppers mind should take measures (preppair in advance) and not just simply wait for “event”. If we are speaking only about fuel prices than the obvious decision is to change your car. I do not like and do not see any advantages of “hybrid” cars. Any diesel car is more fuel effective and more pleasant for driving than “hybrid”. Sorry, but I am speaking about EU realities (remember – here the fuel prices already reached your “riot level”). So middle class pasenger car – Audi with 1.9liter turbo diesel engine has 47MPG ( 5l/100km, 1miles=1.61km, 1gallon=3.785liter). The same life mode concerns the electricity bill for a home – maybe it is high time to change your habits and electrical equipment? 300 or 400 USd (per month?) electricity bill looks a bit too big for a home. You have all your lights “on” all the time or you are heating/cooling your home directly with electricity?
    Please excuse me for my English – it is not my native language.