Why We Are Truly In Trouble

Feb 4, 2012 by

As you’ve read by now, I am building a SHTF plan that I fully intend on having to use.  A large part of the reason I believe that is I cannot I continue to be baffled by politicians and other finance talking headings telling everyone that things will get better.  Even President Obama said as much in his State Of The Union address.  However, I remain skeptical that things will turn around.  The reason…I need to understand what events will cause a shift in our current path.  Let’s break it down into the main areas that are likely impacted.

1. Housing

What makes anyone think housing in the US will rebound?  Who exactly is in the position to buy homes?  Young folks out of college are struggling to find work.  Young couples already in homes are likely underwater or breakeven at best and not in the position to move up.  Middle aged couples usually don’t make moves unless it’s work related or to move up.  Older folks are likely to stay in their existing home and, with the rising cost of living, certainly not looking to take any risks.

In addition, you have many home owners in some stage of foreclosure.  As they sell or are forced out, they will likely move to a rental and not buying another home.  It’s very unfortunate but with the lack of buyers, the prices will stay depressed or be dragged down even further.  While many are calling a bottom, how do you justify the argument?

Verdict: It’s won’t be housing that turns around.

2. Unemployment

With unemployment officially at 8.3 % and unofficially at 11+%, it stands to reason that quite a few events need to take place to reverse that trend.  Consumers and businesses are not spending.  We can’t expect businesses to start hiring when the economy is so fragile.  If you were running a small business, would you chance hiring people right now?  I certainly would not as there is too much risk.  So, with all the uncertainty is it a surprise that people have given up on finding work?

Verdict: High unemployment looks to be here to stay

3. Stock Market

Many believe that the market will rally?  What I’m unsure of is what news will cause this rally?  Dropping or flat unemployment, European countries defaulting, S&P country downgrades?  Even individual companies are missing on earnings and those that hit earnings are doing it despite decreasing revenues (read as continued cost cutting).  There’s only so much companies can cut until they reach the bone.

The other issue is capital that is leaving the stock market.  Many families in trouble have had to tap their investment savings (if they had it) or worse, their 401ks.  Worse still is that many pension funds have become more conservative after the beating they took over the last several years.  They assume 8% returns which is just something that doesn’t happen any more.

Verdict: The market seems poised to remain flat for the time being

4. The World

While the US is quite a mess, there is enough going on overseas to significantly impact our world.  Do we really think the world will become more stable in the near future?  The euro is likely to collapse causing a major ripple effect to the US economy.  The tensions in the Middle East are at all time high and I believe most people feel that war with Iran is inevitable.  Syria is killing their own people and Libya and Iraq are more unstable than they were 2 years ago.  Things will certainly get more complex and we can potentially see the SHTF there.

Verdict: We’re likely no too far off from the SHTF

So, I really have a hard time understanding what positive change will start the ball rolling in the right direction.  Rather, I believe things are headed in the other direction.  The elections in the US help drive my point home.  Ron Paul seems to be the only candidate that cares about bringing this country out of debt.  However, he is not likely to win the Republican nomination much less the presidency.  People don’t seem to care about or understand how the debt impacts our economy.  I believe people are too wrapped up in their lives to really pay attention to what needs to be done.  That doesn’t bode well for us.

My friends, all I can say is please have your family and loved ones prepared.  There is little harm to be ready for the TEOTWAWKI by building a good SHTF plan.

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10 Comments

  1. gat31

    wow pretty much my assessment as well. 5 years ago l never noticed what was going on around me. One day l found talk radio by accident and slowly have woken up.
    However getting others to see what’s happening is frustrating. The general statement is “as long as l can get my beer and cigarettes it doesn’t affect me so l don’t care” They can tell me about some show or movie but can’t tell me who Ron Paul is. They know who won American Idol but can’t tell me what the NDAA, SOPA,PIPA, or ACTA bills are. Drives me insane. So l prepare for the worse, hope for the best and pray they don’t try to find me after TSHTF because l’m gonna pretend not to know them lol. Keep going on your site l’m enjoying it. :)

    • Gat – same has really happened for me. Peter Schiff if the one that turned me on to what is coming. I read a few of his books and they were certainly eye openers.

      That is an interesting point on folks not knowing Ron Paul. The media does a masterful job in surpressing Dr. Paul’s message and every chance they get, they bury his message. Here in my part of the northeast folks know Ron Paul but they believe he has no shot so they say they won’t vote for him as they feel they are wasting their vote. I explain that thinking that way is why we can’t get a guy like Paul into office.

      Love your last line too. I’ve been trying to get my neighbors aware but many are resisting. They better not knock on my door when things get tough.

      Thanks for the encouragement. I hope you can keep commenting as I enjoy the dialogue.

  2. Mike

    Good post Mike; its just a matter of when the SHTF will happen, not if it will happen. I too have a plan already in place; I have enough food and water available to last at least a year. But we continue to prep as you never can be too prepared.

    The world is a very unstable place now and it looks as if Greece and the European union is going over the cliff. As Peter Schiff says, just watch Europe if you want to see whats coming to America’s shores.

    Guns, Gold and a get Away Plan.

    • Totally agree Mike. I think we can learn a lot from what is going on in Europe. Also, what took place in Russia will be a good barometer. I plan to do a post on that in the near future. Thanks for reading.

  3. Almeda Uskert

    Remember the Y2K scare? Being an old Mother Earther anyway and with the advent of the internet, the grid is the thing we need to learn to live off of or at least realize how fragile it is to Emts from our enemies or from solar flares. I don’t talk to anyone about prepping–I don’t want it to be common knowledge. I say, if you’re a Christian and figuring on your ‘get out of jail free card–via the rapture–do the Christian thing and prep for your unsaved loved ones. If you figure on overcoming whatever is coming our way, be prepared to defend yourself.

    • Alemda – great point about how fragile our grid is to attack. We don’t realize how close we are to chaos. My plan is not only to defend my family but my extended family who I’m trying to convince to prepare. I believe you’ll be better served in large groups that trying to stick it out on your own. Thanks for reading.

  4. bowlan

    your unemployment numbers are wrong.
    the real numbers are 23.4% unemployment.
    thats not even counting the millions who stopped looking.
    or including the 48.9 million on food stamps.
    we have become a service sector welfare state.
    since 2001 both the repub and dem side have been passing trade bills that send jobs overseas.
    people are in denial or simplu diumbed down by the liber controled media.

  5. chester

    Mike, Assuredly understated for when tshtf it will gain momentum possibly very rapidly with “just in time” super efficiency imploding. TPB will take the world to war according to Gerald Celente. Look at history, a war follows a depression by around seven years for centuries already. Commensurate in size of this depression it may very well be partly nuclear. Stored food and preppers may very well get cooked in the Northern Hemisphere. The Southern hemisphere has few English speaking countries and few that are sparsely populated with enough water but worth looking at.

  6. just waiting

    Mike, your #1 and 2 tie together, its going to be a further consolidation of wealth for the rich.

    You’re very right, not many of us regular folk can afford a home anymore. Families are being forced out of their houses every day, by banks that would rather lose the property to vandalism and neglect than renegotiate and keep a family in. The houses sit. Soon, banks will start selling them off their books to big investors, who will buy whole blocks of properties to rent. But the forced out families aren’t moving into rentals, they can’t afford them either. Some move back home with the folks, and bringing their families with them, for others, its not as easy. So the block buyres are going to appeal to the gov, and the gov will subsidize them.

    Mom and Dad live maybe on a pension and some SocSec, and maybe have a little bit of savings. We’ve always called it living on a fixed income. The kids daily living expenses now get added to their monthly costs. Savings, that someday would have been an inheritance, evaporate quickly. When Mom and Dad pass, there’s no more pension, no more SS, and the inheritance is gone.

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  1. Week #6 - SHTF Plan Prepping | The Home For Survival - [...] A few items on the SHTF plan this week as I focused on prepping my post on Why We Are Truly …

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